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Latest Republican polls in Iowa and New Hampshire

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Romney leads in both by comfortable margins, over 10%. He's particularly gaining in New Hampshire, where Giuliani fell from 24% to 16% since September, now running third behind McCain, who's been steady at 18%. Thompson also fell from 13% to 4%, according to CNN polls. Romney has the lead at about 33%. A sidenote, Ron Paul has moved up from 4% to 8% support.

Romney's gain is being attributed mainly to the amount of time and money he's spent, but also important, his hard stance on immigration. Romney has become tied to this issue, which seems to be increasing in importance to New Hampshire voters, relative to the importance of terrorism (which McCain and Giuliani split the vote) and the Iraq war, where McCain has carved out a niche. McCain's support for the surge hurt him when it appeared to be failing, and fails to help him when the violence in Iraq decreases...Partially because real political progress is not forthcoming in Iraq, and partially because people are paying less attention, now that violence is (temporarily) reduced!

In Iowa, Huckabee is making surprising progress. Despite raising less than 5% of the money of Giuliani or Romney (~$48 million to ~$2 million) he has (just barely) passed Giuliani and is making ground on Romney, who leads at about 33% support. Huckabee, standing at about 20%, is targeting evangelicals. He not only said that abortion is a moral issue (as opposed to a states rights issue) but compared it to slavery! While a dangerous stance to take in the general election, it appears to be helping him in conservative Iowa. This may prompt other conservatives to further suck up to Christian fundamentalists. Huckabee also got an endorsement from Chuck Norris...No idea how that'll play in Iowa, but the ad is amusing, if you want to look it up.

Romney, running 4th to 5th in national polls at 10% or less, is counting on an early states strategy to defeat Giuliani and others. If he wins big in Iowa and New Hampshire, and follows up in South Carolina, Romney could come out on top after Super Tuesday. But, if Giuliani can come back to place a close second in these first states, he could destroy Romney's momentum. Or, in a more unusual scenario, should the states all come up close, or other candidates have more success (Huckabee in Iowa, McCain in New Hampshire, etc.) the first states could become more or less irrelevant for the Super Tuesday states.

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Updated 19th November 2007 at 04:59 PM by Blitz



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